Premier League Over Under Picks for 4/1 through 4/7

Pick Results: 5-3

Picks

Brighton Vs Norwich Under 2.5 goals

Neither of these teams have scored much this season. On a goals per game basis Brighton is eighteenth in goals for and Norwich is twentieth. Brighton is better in the goals against category at seventh, but Norwich is towards the bottom in this category at nineteenth. It doesn't seem like there will be lot of goals in this one. The model agrees estimating that 91% of the time this game goes under. Norwich is at the bottom of the table and it doesn't look like they will remain in the Premier League after this year. Brighton on the other hand is clear of the relegation zone. Brighton should secure the win to further support there place in the Premier League for next year. Brighton's recipe for success appears to be sound defense. Other interesting bets would be too look at the Brighton to win line, Norwich to be shutout line, the correct score of 1-0, or the correct score of 2-0.

Tottenham Vs Newcastle Under 2.5 goals

Tottenham is in good form right now. In there last five games they have scored three, two, two, five, and four. They also have three shutouts in the last five games. It seems like the heavy hitters can score, but the middle and lower table teams do not. On a goals per game basis Tottenham is sixth in goals for and Newcastle is thirteenth. On the other side Tottenham is again sixth best in goals against and Newcastle is fifteenth. Tottenham should win and I am banking on Newcastle not scoring. If you think Tottenham will cover the goals line by themselves then the Newcastle shutout line would be in play or Tottenham to win. The game is at the Hotspurs stadium that further supports Tottenham to come out on top.

Fantasy

The Saturday slate is a big one with six games on the main slate. The game is four FWD/MID, two DEF, and one GK with a budget of one hundred dollars. Current rules we try to deploy for this type of game:

FWD/MID

• At least one FWD/MID above 19 dollars <100% of winning lineups>

  • 7 players that cost above 19 on Saturday's main slate

• At least two additional FWD/MID above 17 dollars <80% of winning lineups>

  • 21 players that cost above 17 on Saturday's main slate

• At least one FWD/MID between 12-14 dollars <80% of winning lineups>

  • 33 players between 12 - 14 on Saturday's main slate

• At least one pair of FWD/MID from the same team <80% of winning lineups>

DEF

• At least one DEF between 10-11 dollars <80% of winning lineups>

  • 29 players between 10 - 11 on Saturday's main slate

• At least one DEF between 8-11 dollars <80% of winning lineups>

  • 62 players between 8 - 11 on Saturday's main slate

• DEF on different teams <80% of winning lineups>

GK

• GK cost is 10 dollars <60% of winning lineups>

  • 2 GK that cost 10 dollars on Saturday's main slate

• GK is on the same team as one of the defenders <60% of winning lineups>

Start with the groups with the smallest number of players that meet the criteria first. Then apply the number of players on the same or different teams logic to the larger pools of players. Spend at least 99 out of 100 on the budget <All winning lineups have been spent 99 or 100 dollars of the budget>.